It is possible to support a party without supporting its leadership. It is possible to support a party without supporting a government led by that party. Neither would be a normal situation but these are not normal times. I suspect there may be a number within the Fianna Fáil family falling into one or both of the above camps at present. A little like Catechism it can be argued that one is either “in or out” and that an a la carte approach is not possible. For my part I continue dining at my preferred restaurant but I do reserve right of judgement on the set menu.

Some good people were promoted yesterday and I am very plased for them. Dara Calleary, whom I know from old, is an intelligent, erudite and hard working politician. Very glad to see him moved up the chain. Pat Carey is another good performer ; a different mould but again capable and articulate – slightly surprised to see him in Gaeltacht affairs (as an urbane city gent) but like all good professionals, one must adapt and change as required. (Which incidentally, is exactly the skill our own commander in chief needs to develop.)

No problem with Tony Killeen and good to see a fellow yellow belly (Sean Connick from Wexford) move up the ranks. Batt O’Keeffee will be a safe pair of hands in enterprise and his robust approach may well bring a hardnosed effectiveness to the various negotiations involved. Bully boy tactics from Mick O’Leary and co won’t be expected cause Batt too much bother.

As for the curate’s egg… I am not about to commit complete hari kiri but .. for my liking .. very conservative… very cautious .. very late. Vacancies were filled and and a swap or two was made. It would appear minimal change was desired. Which is not what I felt was needed. I like Noel Dempsey, I like Dermot Ahern and I like Brian Lenihan (who is doing a fine job, better than many in the full of their health). But on the subject of health, there are many many Fianna Fáilers that could do at least as good if not a far better job than the independent TD from west Dublin. Likewise I would not have put the Tánaiste into Education and I would not have given the greens their power grabbing new junior. There is plenty of talent on the backbences and it appears under the current regime that is where it will stay. I would have thought this was not a time for making the minimum substitutions necessary; rather a time for throwing out the rulebook. I regret this may come to be seen as a lost opportunity up to and far beyond the next general election. Lord, help me to be hopeful.

Within FF there was excitement, we’d liked Bertie, loved his focus on the North and his unalloyed Republicanism, but the halo was losing some sheen each day with a thousand rain drops one by one dulling the sparkle and it all became too much in the end. We accepted whilst he had done great things, he was from a different time and at this stage it was best all round to now move on and make a clean break.

And so a new hero was born. Brian Cowen the straight talking Offally man stepped forth. A man who liked a pint in his local and who knew one side of a GAA pitch from the other (played intercounty himself at one point) we remembered his thundering performances at Ard Fheiseanna, his grá for the cupla focal, there was a past skirmish with Paisley and there was the way he grasped the nettle in the dying days of General Election 2007 seeming to singlehandedly recover the campaign and propel the party to an unexpected poll topping performance. His own name attracted 18,000 votes on the ballot paper in his own Offally, biggest vote of the election for any candidate. On a policy and cerebral level his articulation of reform, his targeting of public service efficiencies, his espousal of Europe, his disinterest in the politics of spin and the preference for direct honest engagement. Here was a dyed in the wool Fianna Fáil man, one who would restore our faltering fortunes, a focus on historic values and righting the wrongs of past administrations, our own and others. No brown envelopes, no baggage, just a straight shooter getting down to business. We were looking at a thousand year .. reign!

Alas it has not transpired that way. What exactly has he done wrong? Losing Lisbon was a bad start of course and the honeymoon was over. Clouds gathered on the markets at home and abroad over the next Summer until the fall of Lehmans in September 08 heralded a new era in the world economy. The housing market had been stalled from almost a year before when McDowell uttered his now infamous words on stamp duty which ultimately went on to define and dog the GE07 campaign, with FG and Labour egging on any concessions to the housing crescendo, amidst calls for raised spending and cuts in taxes, promises which seem as alien now as they were foolhardy then but which is all forgotten in the pasts of time.

Amidst a daily weakening market domestically and internationally the new government, still barely a Summer in office, brought forward the budget in an attempt to quell the tide and show some steel. A tough budget followed in October when the first cracks in the government’s style showed. Amidst funding cutbacks and unpopular tax levies, a measure to withdraw automatic entitlements was met with sheer unmitigated fury. Thousands marched on the Dáil in a form of public unrest not seen for decades. Pensioners wrath was a force to be reckoned with and the country seemed on the brink of crisis as each day grew more unruly than the next. In retrospect, whilst is did mark a policy shift (from automatic entitlement to means tested benefits) it would have been very foolish for a government to fall on the back of removing automatic entitlements from the more wealthy of our pensioners.

Anyway, weakened but still afloat the government lurched on. In February we had an emergency budget, in the context of national accounting it was very necessary and again the government targeted a sacred cow. Public service pensions, generous to a level long since obsolete in the private sector, with guaranteed payments and an index linked defined benefit (regardless of fund performance) were targeted for greater employee contributions. Call it a tax, an increased levy, there were technical reasons for how it was applied (primarily to safeguard the income of existing retirees whose benefits are linked), the measure was justified, necessary but provoked a populist backlash. Overnight the public sector walked out of Ballybrit and into Cirque de Soleil (ie they shifted from Fianna Fáil to Labour) and the next poll showed us on 20-something percent.

No worse there is none but indeed it was to come. A rough locals, a tumultuous Summer and back to business this past few weeks. A reasonable month or two for the government (or so I thought), no particular scandal (Our Ceann Comhairle’s excesses aside although this does not seem to have entered public consciousness to the extent that it should). The government had begun to show some mettle, the tough decisions were being taken (Budgets I & II, public sector levy, Lisbon guarantees, NAMA) the NAMA legislation had been aired with all in the spirit of consultation and improvement. Whilst modern day FG played politics with the legislation, not one but two elder statesmen of the Fine Gael party (Garrett Fitzgerald and Alan Dukes) came out in favour of the government approach. Opposition plans from the populist Labour to the ‘oppose for opposition sake’ FG plans aside, informed sentiment appeared to be reconciling to the idea. A few bad days at the office for Enda Kenny caught short on the detail and a few better days for An Taoiseach beginning at last to communicate with his people.

And yet we turn a corner, turn a page to find 17%. At this stage it seems many want change for changes sake. The policies are no longer important, the principles are no longer important, the people want change and that’s about the long and the short of it. I hope we get through these nextfew months. Get Lisbon under our belts and allow us proceed with Europe. Get NAMA up and running with amendments as necessary from Green party and other parties interested in improving the legislation. Get the December budget out of the way with whatever necessary pain that may entail. Into the new year, lets start afresh in January. A reshuffle at that stage, some new faces in cabinet, more talent from the backbenches and perhaps a rapprochement for others (John McGuinness for example). Survive the winter league, get new blood out training in the Spring, put our best team on the pitch and look to the Summer with hope.

I will be voting Yes, not just because the big man say so, (although as an FF activist I am highly motivated to deliver a successful first outing for him) but also because I have studied the issues and concluded it is the right thing to do. The treaty enhances democracy, streamlines procedures, makes sensible procedural adjustments and ensures equality across all member states, no mean feat considering the extremes of size and weight across the union. In fact countries like Ireland end up punching above our weight with the same presence at the table as Germany, France or any the other larger member states. Sure we lose a comissioner for 5 out of every 15 years, but so does everyone else and we all know above a certain critical mass a committee can no longer function effectively. The treaty is hard to sell because there are no big new ideas like the single currency or enlargement, but rather housekeeping, making the union work better from within and without. National and the European parliament have greatly increase powers increasing the democratic ethos of the union, whilst the citizens’ charter enables participative democracy on a grand pan-european scale. Interestingly this million-sig petition idea came from John Gormley who similarly has comparable ideas at local level in the recent local government green paper. The treaty has been in progress for over ten years, and I believe in order for the union to continue to function these changes are essential – the status quo is not an option. At the end of the day the key agreements were forged under the Irish presidency when then Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and then Minister for Foreign Affairs Brian Cowen put 90% of it together.

Lastly on the local scene, the Taoiseach and our very own Commissioner McCreevy were in town last week where I joined them for a whistlestop tour up Naas main street. Reaction was good as most people are engaged at this point with minds focussing during the closing stages and more and more information coming onstream. Most the local councillors have personalised posters up at this stage signifying the final rallying round before the big day. Top points for european exposure go to Paddy Mac and the Labour posters which one could be forgiven for taking as local election posters so faint is the white Lisbon related text buried away in the top corner above a huge photo and name plate. In fairness to Paddy it seems to be the Labour template as I’ve seen them in Dublin too with all the Labour councillors and why not, they might as well kill two birds at one stone – recycling at its best. A cynical thought did strike me though – with the left so split on the issue, could they possibly be attempting to have it both ways with maximum profiling on the issue and yet a degree of detachment from the message. Play the man not the treaty.. Given Gilmore’s vigorous championing on various news programmes it’s hardly the official line but to the man on the street looking at a poster, name association achieved with minimal baggage?? Far fetched perhaps but fiendishly cute at the same time!

As always there is much speculation about what exactly he will do. Will he reform stamp duty, will he cut the top rate, will he revise the PRSI ceiling, will he cut spending, current or capital, how much will go on the pint etc…

We’ve been hearing for months how his hands are tied due to tighter than expected economic contraints. It’s not all that unexpected though – McWilliams has been warning us for years! And I’m sure it won’t be all that big a surprise to Tánaiste Cowen either. He’s a clever man and he didn’t come down in the last shower so I’m sure he will make a good fist of it, making perhaps some necessary tightening measures whilst keeping the broader economy intact and ensuring social justice is met.

After the huge increases in child benefit in recent years and the €1,000 a year under-sixes payment (due next week, thankyou Minister) he will hardly revisit childcare again this time. He will keep the focus on pensions though moving towards the government’s stated target of €300 a week old age pension by the end of the current term. The PRSI ceiling revision was a component of the election manifesto and I think it is a just and sensible measure, removing an artificial protection for high earners which meant the lower end paid disproportionately more. Alarm bells seem to be ringing that he will leave the top rate unchanged at 41%, rather than reducing again and quite frankly I think he’s right – one small concesssion for the individual, one giant cost for the state.

I do fervently and confidently believe he must, at minimum, maintain capital spending at the current level, or better again, increase if he has any scope to do so. Whatever about an economic blip now, it is essential for the long term economic outlook that we put serious infrastructure in place in this country that will stand us into the future. In the recent International competitiveness report this was cited as one of our weak points, it is being addressed through huge spending programmes, particularly Transport21, but that must continue. No slippage there is acceptable. I’ve often made the argument that we are a young nation, that we were levied by a foreign land for centuries, it’s only a generation since we gained real economic freedom, and all of that is true, but now at last we do have some money so lets get the house in order.

On stamp duty I think it is inequitable, the reform was over hasty and I would have preferred us continue preaching the fiscal rectitude gospel which ironically the Minister will be practising by now anyway. The biggest flaw with the reform that was introduced is that there is no upper limit on first time buyers duty free purchases – which allows for obvious abuses of the system. I don’t think we’ll see changes there this time though.

It is expected we will see a curtailing of the many high end loopholes which currently enable accountants siphon millions for their wealthy clients – however I am sure new and more innovative ways will be uncovered instead by the collective creative acumen of the financial consulting industry – a constant game of cat and mouse there in every country me thinks..

Lastly on a personal interest area, my own pet request in this budget is a relief on commuter parking. A month or so back I made a pre-budget submission to the Tánaiste, through Deputy Áine Brady’s office, for an extension of the taxsaver scheme to park and ride fees, giving every possible encouragement for use of public transport, ultimately getting people out of their cars and onto the train or LUAS. It shouldn’t cost a whole lot and it would be a nice sweetener now that pay parking is being rolled out across the commuter network. Any minor reduction in revenue should be offset by economic and social benefits as people free up time to spend at homes or in their communities rather than being stuck in traffic jams.

Anyway on Wednesday, all will be revealed.. I look forward to the grand unveiling!