Category Archives: Politics

Weekend Miscellany

Posted on by

Thanks for all the feedback on my last post. And thanks to the guys at IrishElection for linking in. Glad you found it worth a read.

Next up is Lisbon and NAMA. I suport both though with slight qualifications in each case. I think NAMA is going to work and work reasonably well and I’ll say why in a longer post over the weekend. Although I’m not entirely sure what will happen to our developer friends and the associated business interests and downstream dependents (e.g. Employees, Creditors) as NAMA does not appear to do much for them. They still owe a bundle on many worthless sites. On Tuesday they owed AIB 10M for a site worth 3M, On Wednesday they owe NAMA 10M for a site worth 3M. The difference is the rest of the banks (in theory) can then restart lending to ‘normal’ or at least more probably profitable business iniatives. Caveat emptor as regards the builders and the 3M sites but NAMA is not a panacea for anyone.

Lisbon, well I thought it was a good deal last year and still do, although I still have reservations over a second referendum so soon after the people voiced their views on the first one. Right or wrong, it does weaken the democratic process somewhat if you keep going till you get the ‘right’ answer. Does anyone seriously think we would be having a second referendum if the answer was ‘Yes’ last time? Otherwise the treaty still stands on the merits (I felt) it had last year. Housekeeping by and large and the union should be more streamlined and efficient as a result Lisbon coming into force . Ironically I felt it was an eminently sensible decision to reduce the number of commissioners, to form a workable group size, having said that it is hard not to be pleased Ireland will not retain a permanent seat at the table.

Also whilst there is nothing specific in the treaty either way, there is no doubt the outcome will affect investor confidence and international views on Ireland which are fundamentally important as we try to navigate our way into safer waters. Critics may point at FDI figures since last year but a second ‘No’ would be a bridge too far for that to continue. Also I feel most the naysayers are actually fighting a different battle. Many of them are opposed to the European project full stop. I even have sympathy for some of their arguments (soverignity being one) but that ship has sailed, it left port in the seventies and rejection or otherwise of Lisbon will not alter those issues.

 On balance the European project has been a profoundly positive experience for Ireland. Areas such as workers rights, an expanded market for our goods, greatly lessened economic dependency on Britain, progressive environmental legislation, funding from ECB for our banks and from Europe in general for our infrastructure projects, enhancement of Ireland’s strategic attractivenes ref EMEA and many other reasons all mean I will be voting Yes on October 2nd. More on this anon.

Bruised, battered .. but unbowed?

Posted on by

What has happened this past year? Sixteen months ago we had a new leader, a new hope and an approval rating in the high seventies or even eighties. Which obviously means FGers, Labour, all sides wanted to give the new guy a chance.

Within FF there was excitement, we’d liked Bertie, loved his focus on the North and his unalloyed Republicanism, but the halo was losing some sheen each day with a thousand rain drops one by one dulling the sparkle and it all became too much in the end. We accepted whilst he had done great things, he was from a different time and at this stage it was best all round to now move on and make a clean break.

And so a new hero was born. Brian Cowen the straight talking Offally man stepped forth. A man who liked a pint in his local and who knew one side of a GAA pitch from the other (played intercounty himself at one point) we remembered his thundering performances at Ard Fheiseanna, his grá for the cupla focal, there was a past skirmish with Paisley and there was the way he grasped the nettle in the dying days of General Election 2007 seeming to singlehandedly recover the campaign and propel the party to an unexpected poll topping performance. His own name attracted 18,000 votes on the ballot paper in his own Offally, biggest vote of the election for any candidate. On a policy and cerebral level his articulation of reform, his targeting of public service efficiencies, his espousal of Europe, his disinterest in the politics of spin and the preference for direct honest engagement. Here was a dyed in the wool Fianna Fáil man, one who would restore our faltering fortunes, a focus on historic values and righting the wrongs of past administrations, our own and others. No brown envelopes, no baggage, just a straight shooter getting down to business. We were looking at a thousand year .. reign!

Alas it has not transpired that way. What exactly has he done wrong? Losing Lisbon was a bad start of course and the honeymoon was over. Clouds gathered on the markets at home and abroad over the next Summer until the fall of Lehmans in September 08 heralded a new era in the world economy. The housing market had been stalled from almost a year before when McDowell uttered his now infamous words on stamp duty which ultimately went on to define and dog the GE07 campaign, with FG and Labour egging on any concessions to the housing crescendo, amidst calls for raised spending and cuts in taxes, promises which seem as alien now as they were foolhardy then but which is all forgotten in the pasts of time.

Amidst a daily weakening market domestically and internationally the new government, still barely a Summer in office, brought forward the budget in an attempt to quell the tide and show some steel. A tough budget followed in October when the first cracks in the government’s style showed. Amidst funding cutbacks and unpopular tax levies, a measure to withdraw automatic entitlements was met with sheer unmitigated fury. Thousands marched on the Dáil in a form of public unrest not seen for decades. Pensioners wrath was a force to be reckoned with and the country seemed on the brink of crisis as each day grew more unruly than the next. In retrospect, whilst is did mark a policy shift (from automatic entitlement to means tested benefits) it would have been very foolish for a government to fall on the back of removing automatic entitlements from the more wealthy of our pensioners.

Anyway, weakened but still afloat the government lurched on. In February we had an emergency budget, in the context of national accounting it was very necessary and again the government targeted a sacred cow. Public service pensions, generous to a level long since obsolete in the private sector, with guaranteed payments and an index linked defined benefit (regardless of fund performance) were targeted for greater employee contributions. Call it a tax, an increased levy, there were technical reasons for how it was applied (primarily to safeguard the income of existing retirees whose benefits are linked), the measure was justified, necessary but provoked a populist backlash. Overnight the public sector walked out of Ballybrit and into Cirque de Soleil (ie they shifted from Fianna Fáil to Labour) and the next poll showed us on 20-something percent.

No worse there is none but indeed it was to come. A rough locals, a tumultuous Summer and back to business this past few weeks. A reasonable month or two for the government (or so I thought), no particular scandal (Our Ceann Comhairle’s excesses aside although this does not seem to have entered public consciousness to the extent that it should). The government had begun to show some mettle, the tough decisions were being taken (Budgets I & II, public sector levy, Lisbon guarantees, NAMA) the NAMA legislation had been aired with all in the spirit of consultation and improvement. Whilst modern day FG played politics with the legislation, not one but two elder statesmen of the Fine Gael party (Garrett Fitzgerald and Alan Dukes) came out in favour of the government approach. Opposition plans from the populist Labour to the ‘oppose for opposition sake’ FG plans aside, informed sentiment appeared to be reconciling to the idea. A few bad days at the office for Enda Kenny caught short on the detail and a few better days for An Taoiseach beginning at last to communicate with his people.

And yet we turn a corner, turn a page to find 17%. At this stage it seems many want change for changes sake. The policies are no longer important, the principles are no longer important, the people want change and that’s about the long and the short of it. I hope we get through these nextfew months. Get Lisbon under our belts and allow us proceed with Europe. Get NAMA up and running with amendments as necessary from Green party and other parties interested in improving the legislation. Get the December budget out of the way with whatever necessary pain that may entail. Into the new year, lets start afresh in January. A reshuffle at that stage, some new faces in cabinet, more talent from the backbenches and perhaps a rapprochement for others (John McGuinness for example). Survive the winter league, get new blood out training in the Spring, put our best team on the pitch and look to the Summer with hope.

In death there’s hope..

Posted on by

First of all RIP Ted Kennedy. His was an epic life all the more wonderous for the shadow of those around him. A contrast of sorts, a frequent communicant who championed the liberal agenda, a Kennedy who never became president, a legislator beyond excellence. Fabled by his famous older brothers he carved his own destiny and now casts a long shadow of his own over US and indeed world affairs.

Whilst the particular era perhaps ended long ago, there was still a tragic finality in reading that Senator Kennedy’s remains were being flown to Arlington national cemetary after the Boston service, to be laid beside his brothers Jack and Bobby Kennedy in the family plot. Three brothers now all in the ground.

Edward Kennedy did have one shot at the presidency of course, in 1980 when he was beaten for the Democratic nomination, in what he knew then must be his last attempt, he made a poignant post ballot speech, for a man who saw the hopes slip from his grasp only a few hours before but raised himself for the hopes of many and delivered a historic concession “the dream will never die”..

On a slightly brighter note, and am sure the man himself would grant a wry smile, I noted in a side column how the hopefuls are already gathering to contest the now vacant senate seat left behind. Of course with a full slate of legislative progress to be made and at times stormy assembly, that extra Democrat seat cannot be left idle for long. Not that the aspirants will mind an accelerated progression process.

There’s a story told about the late Labour leader John Smith. His own funeral of course was the scene of fevered plotting with the celebrated Blair / Brown feud at full peak of which he would have wholeheartedly approved. On hearing of a bereavement in the ranks, after making the appropriate noises and a suitable solemnity to the relatives, he would turn to his confidantes and allow a sparkle in the eye and a rub of the hands as his thoughts darted to the by-election ahead and the selections to be made with his famous phrase ..  “Where there’s death there’s hope” …

The baby and the bathwater

Posted on by

I read two opposing accounts on the controversy in US healthcare this weekend and ironically enough I agreed with both. One was contained within the ‘Open Door’ magazine, a catholic pamphlet that is generally picked up on the way out of church (although this particular copy caught my eye in Tesco Maynooth), the other was in the UK Guardian, a left-leaning publication not normally given to religious regards.

Obama’s health service plans are in the news at present of course, as a debate ranges in the States over his plans to replace the current insurance only system with a national program for state cover. Some right wing critics in the States have seized upon supposed failures of the British public (or socialised as they say) health system to beat the reforming ideas of the new Healthcare push.

The ‘Open Door’ led with a front page missive upon the sanctity of human life and railed against the evils of disconnected secular beauracracies and the spectres of ‘death doctors’, putative panels with deity like powers on life and death. Forced euthanasia and mass abortions were cited as catastrophic consequences of socialised system.

I agreed with the author in the sense that I too would regard such consequences as apoclayptic if they were indeed to happen and I would very much concur with the author’s view on the sanctity of human life. However neither am I convinced that such things are contained within the healthcare package, rather a case of misrepresentation.

Which allowed me to find common cause with a quite different assessment of the plans contained within the Guardian newspaper this weekend, one which defended the plans and vilified the state-side critics. Private healthcare at the extreme as practised in many ways in the states literally is a life and death sitation for those caught in the middle. In this case of course ability to pay is the decider rather than either man or god which is a far less christian conundrum altogether.

Whilst many conservatives may take issue with Obama’s pro-choice views I believe such considerations to be misplaced at the heart of this debate. I believe him to be a fundamentally good man (in every sense including the classic biblical connotation of the word) and I believe the Democrats to be a good party. So Whilst I empathatise with the concerns of the religous orders, I fear the financial fire power of the US insurers is skewing the debate on many axes and for far baser motives, thus obscuring the real benefits the plan can bring at a very fundamental and christian level. As much as God must want to protect the unborn child, equally he must want to protect the poor sick and needy. So let’s get the balance right with an informed debate, but let’s make sure we throw out neither the baby nor the bathwater…

Tipping the scales

Posted on by

Very little commentary on my last political post, surprised by that. Thought it might provoke a few responses.. I did get a few mails back but noone posted a comment here. From the couple mails I got, again some more interesting results. A friend and political counterpart who I would consider more right than your average FFer came in alongside Hilary Clinton on the compass. Which does make sense, in terms of relative positioning (i.e. to the right of the control group) but not absolute as we agreed the compass is a little skewed. Another FFer of my aquaintance took the test and landed at almost the exact spot as myself and the rest, providing extra weight to my theory. Again though, I think it says more about our range of values and common themes than a simplistic right/left divide, it is a more complex political tapestry than that.

I was in discussion last night (mainly via twitter) on social justice. Reflected bit more today. Is an oft abused term. Most mean by it a desire to protect those of lower means or protection. Which is what I generally mean by it as well. However taken literally justice would actually be quite a (classical) right wing concept. Biblican justice suggests an eye for an eye, and an economic version of social justice could suggest for example that noone is entitled to additional protection, in fact quite a darwininst model could emerge using pure ‘justice’ ideals. Is the welfare state a ‘just’ society? Why is it ‘just’ that someone gets money for nothing?! Alernately is it ‘just’ for another to inherit wealth not having earned it themselves. Would the ultimate ‘just’ society see everyone levelled at entry (age of adulthood) and allow everyone make of life what they will. No silver spoons but no safety nets either. I guess that would be real social justice.

Anyhow, after six months at the coalface I’m heading for some downtime. Not even sure if I’ll have an internet connection next week.. But my blackberry will still be on, so if you want to, comment away!