Category Archives: Politics

(Mostly) all politics are local

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Note this is a cross post from IrishElection.com where I’ve been posting a lot lately. There is quite a busy discussion going on over there also on the same piece.

This post stems from a discussion in the comments section under ‘All politics is local’. We were comparing and contrasting the UK and Irish systems in terms of how rooted politicians must be within their local constituencies. I think there is significant difference between the two jurisdictions, to some degree due to FPTP (First Past The Post) but also due to population sizes.

The system in UK will often see ‘heavy hitters’ or party favourites being positioned within safe seat constituencies to be assured of election. This can mean that Ministers for example are relatively free to concentrate on national matters, whilst a local party machine gets on with the ground work. The constituency being either red or blue (or sometimes yellow) is more or less taken for granted as a loyal stronghold in any event.

Similarly party HQs (Lab and Cons) will often operate a list system, where aspirants are on a waiting list, and are then slotted into various constituencies as seats become available. The link between ‘home turf’ of the constituency and the representatives is far more tenous than here. Whilst there are cases like the Prime Minister himself, who is a passionate and proud son of his Kirkcaldy constituency, his predecessor Blair had never set foot in Sedgefieldprior to the by-election. Also, due to the sheer size of parliament and the country, by elections come up so often that these more mobile candidates seldom have to wait too long to find a suitable opening. In fact, in the UK system, what is sometimes done is that new candidates will be ‘blooded’ in a ‘no hope’ constituency where a seat of the opposite colour comes up, before been given a real crack at a safe seat of their own. Tony Blair was ran in a Tory stronghold (Beaconsfield), purely for campaign experience before being allowed a proper go of it in the Labour seat of Sedgefield. What this does mean in practice is that the party convention is the real election rather than the public vote.

In Ireland opportunties really only come up, once every couple of years, if even, with Council being a ususal prerequisite for a Dáil run, and whilst ocassionaly parachute celebrities feature, generally the candidate will be rooted very deeply within that particular geographic area before even being considered a viable runner. The idea of party favourites flitting from one constituency to the next would be unlikely to work well within the Irish electoral context. The likes of Mary Lou or even Joe Higgins demonstrate that some mobility is possible around the Dublin (or possibly Cork) city constituencies but it is still unlikely to succeed outside those large urban centres. Within the Irish system, the situation remains that having a large local network cemented around a particular area remains the formula for electoral success.

Interestingly both jurisdictions, despite the different approaches and voting methods (FPTP and PR), have produced similar results. The parties all end up chasing the middle, that all important and much sought after floating voters of the centre ground. In the UK with so many seats a foregone conclusion in either direction, the real battle is after the handful of centre lying ’swing’ constituencies. Whilst in Ireland despite a widely differing system, in the form or porportinoal representation, the centre ground is also chased to attract those all important transfers. Then in the US we end up with RINOs and ModDems (alignments within the parties almost closer to the opposite side). Maybe the perfect electoral system is still a work in progress.

Highs and Lows 2009

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I’ve pulled together a collection of some highs and lows from 2009.  There may be a few which are neither highs or lows but have aspects of both or worthy of commentary for some other reason.

Some highs:

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  • Budget 2010. Whilst I accept this was difficult to swallow for many and my own household (being 50% public sector) was not spared, I rank this as a high as it was an example of the government displaying leadership, decisiveness and a conviction that this would and could be solved and not put indefinitely on the long finger for any politically expedient reasons. Standing up to the unions was also a plus for me as was the fact that the FF backbenchers found voice on something other than drink driving. It also confirmed the upwards trajectory of our Finance Minister, Brian Lenihan TD as the ace in the pack and a bulwark against further government descent. A good day for party and for the country.
  • Going North. A little trumpeted but steadily progressing initiative of 2009. Buoyed in no inconsiderable part by the efforts and encouragement of the Ógra movement (who allowed northern voting delegates at youth conference in 09) , the senior Fianna Fáil party organised, held recruitment events and public fori in three Northern counties in the latter half of 2009. Progress was not rapid but steady rather than slow. It is happening and for many of us it is a most welcome development. I always believed in a thirty two county republican party and am delighted to be reassured many others in the movement think likewise. Lets push on for the assembly elections next year and take the opportunity to get a foothold both sides of the border. Towards 2016 indeed.
  • Yes to Lisbon. Perhaps not very sexy, but yet very important for the advancement of the greater European project.  A raft of organisational and procedural changes and some important common ground enablers to compete with the big blocs internationally and Continentally on climate change, security, defence etc.  A long slog, longer than anyone expected when it started in 2004 but welcome closure nonetheless…

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Some lows:

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  • Oireachtas Expenses Scandal The whole thing was an ignominious stain on the body politic. Whilst our former Ceann Comhairle friend, JOD seems to have been the worst, or at least the most prolific, the exorbitance seems to have been shared by many, including opposition parties when on their various junkets. And of course all expenses were signed off by cross party committee.  Which helps explain the reticence by any the Leinster house club members on any side the house to really tackle this until things came to a head via the media and public reaction.  Also whilst only the excesses were highlighted, the many legitimate expenses claimed are subsumed into the mix with the result that even legitimate expenses become  regarded as carpet bagging. The Minister has twice asked for a review of the system and it is needed for all purposes, to expose abuses but also to safeguard the legitimate uses of the system.
  • Banking Crisis The whole problem here is that wrong doing or at least a highly cavalier attitudes appear to have incurred no subsequent penalty, be it financial, legal or career wise. Sure some the big guns shuffled off the deck but not without some nice linings to their pockets as a result. The ‘moral hazard’ argument appeared to go out the window particularly with regard to the banks when it became clear some were ‘too big to fail’ but not in fact ‘too big to bail’. This is the ultimate quandary for a mixed economy, do the rules of extreme capitalism apply (where darwinism prevades and the bigger they come the harder they fall) or does the state pick up the tab to avoid massive job losses and potentially crippling wider economic and social affects. Obama had to do it with the automotive industry and we had to do it with the banks. While the government may have had no other choice,  it does leave a sour taste and we must still see heads roll in 2010 if this sector is to restore confidence.
  • Local Elections This was a real black spot. For me personally it was a very gruelling outcome, having campaigned officially for almost a year, and been involved in local activism for a lot longer it was and is frustrating to accept that, for the next few years at least, I can play no formal role in local affairs. The many things I wanted to do must all take a back seat as I have no formal platform with which to address them.  Whilst I accept the feedback from many people that it was a political not a personal issue, it doesn’t change the result. Also had it been locally political, I think the case stacked up very well, unfortunately we were condemned by the economic tsunami and the wider political malaise. A party colleague in another district, who has contested both general and local elections, recalled ruefully afterwards, how when he ran in the generals (when things were good nationally) he was cursed on local issues, and when he ran locally (when as a sitting Cllr he had a solid record on local issues) he was cursed on the basis of national politics! Looking at the wider political situation, one of the difficulties for the Fianna Fáil party is that so few of the ‘next generation’  young bloods were elected in this election, as where survivors did emerge it was generally the old dog for the long road, based usually on decades of graft and local relationship building. Full credit to them, but the imbalance will make it harder for the party to renew or regenerate internally, or to introduce any new blood/ideas, which ironically is what the electorate said was what was most needed. Well unfortunately it is on hold now for another five years at least.

I will likely add a few more items here over the next day or so but am publishing this now to get started.

The good ship union adrift at sea?

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It appears the unions have managed to scuttle their own ship before it even left port with the events of the past few days. They always looked to be leaking, at least to those on land, but are they now holed below the waterline?

There was going to be a challenge from the start in rallying public support for a mass campaign of protest and unrest, as the anger of earlier months had begun, in many quarters at least, to morph into a kind of bitter acceptance and grim reality.

Whatever the ghosts of the past, the ghost of times present needed to dole out the harshest medicine if we were to dream of seeing the ghost of times future at all. As Bord Snip author, McCarthy himself, opined so succintly, “the government hasn’t run out of compassion, it’s run out of money”. With almost eighty percent of public spending divided almost evenly between public sector wage bill and welfare payments, and four billion in savings to be found, well something had to give.

So for the unions it was always a delicate course to steer a populist earlier anger into a cohesive and longer lasting chorus of dissent. And more importantly to bring to bear a real, actual influence on events by proposing tangible alternative solutions. We saw in the NAMA debate how naysayers became derailed through too broad a coalition of interests and most damningly lack of a credible alternative.

It seems what hope the good ship union had of navigating the storm has now been fatally becalmed by various utterances and admissions of the past few days. Last night’s RTE FrontLine witnessed a truly cringeworthy performance from SIPTU’s Jack O’Conor where he bluffed and blustered and became quite belligerent at times, whilst it became apparent he had no real plan, ace or even jack (excuse the pun) up his sleeve to provide alternate means of addressing the acknowledged shortfalls. It is common place to hear politicians weave around the question and offer platitudes in place of plain speaking but Mr. O’Conor acted as though he was on a pub bar stool and not on a national TV show with a co panel, live audience and hundreds thousands more at home. Despite a growing petulance and repeated protestations to “listen to what he was saying” noone in fact seemed anywhere near the wiser when he was finished.

The chestnut again of who exactly are “the most vulnerable in society” saw some cold figures poured over it as a (welcome new face) tax lawyer ‘did the math’ outlining how a 75% tax rate on couples jointly assessed at €75,000 combined income would be the reality of an enforced effort to secure the required savings in taxation measures alone. The much loved but sadly vapid solution “Tax the rich” really depends on who the rich are. When one man’s “rich” turn out to be another man’s “vulnerable” then we really have gone full circle and we begin to run out of grass. There just aren’t enough “really rich” people left in the country to go around. What loopholes remained have largely been closed already whilst the demise of the celtic tiger has largely put paid to many of the rest. To make it worthwhile any taxation measures would have to apply at a level that massively disincentives labour and has a possibly far more putative effect on the self same masses than a public pay cut would lead to in the first place.

Peter McLoone appears to privately concede reality in this morning’s leaked memo, when despite his colleague O’Connors obfuscation, it transpires that reducing the public pay bill really is a simple question of cutting jobs or cutting pay.

The Unions really are on rocky shores also with the “not our fault” mantra having had a seat at the top table right through the boom years. They often appeared to exert more influence than many back benchers and at the height of it even first mate McCreevy was dispatched to Brussels as not profligate enough for the required ’social justice’ creed that partnership sought at high tide.

But after too many late night’s supping rum at the captain’s table, it is time to shrug off the hangover and grab an oar like everyone else. A rising tide lifted all boats once but now it is time to pull together or face the ocean floor alone.

(This article also appears under my contributions at IrishElection.com)