The darkest night before the dawn..

Yesterday’s opinion poll marked a new low point for Fianna Fáil and for the government, but the real low point has been the slow drip drip, of death by a thousand cuts and gradual erosion of party support over the past many months and even years.

I’ve long said it is not good enough to simply want power for the simple reason of having power. You must want to do something with that power and have clear and powerful enough goals to inspire others to entrust you with it. I’ve been working on some policy ideas with a few other like mindeds but I might talk more on that another day.

For now, here are a few simple things I think the government could and should be doing if it is to recover its standing among the people.

Continue reading

Highs and Lows 2009

I’ve pulled together a collection of some highs and lows from 2009.  There may be a few which are neither highs or lows but have aspects of both or worthy of commentary for some other reason.

Some highs:

-

  • Budget 2010. Whilst I accept this was difficult to swallow for many and my own household (being 50% public sector) was not spared, I rank this as a high as it was an example of the government displaying leadership, decisiveness and a conviction that this would and could be solved and not put indefinitely on the long finger for any politically expedient reasons. Standing up to the unions was also a plus for me as was the fact that the FF backbenchers found voice on something other than drink driving. It also confirmed the upwards trajectory of our Finance Minister, Brian Lenihan TD as the ace in the pack and a bulwark against further government descent. A good day for party and for the country.
  • Going North. A little trumpeted but steadily progressing initiative of 2009. Buoyed in no inconsiderable part by the efforts and encouragement of the Ógra movement (who allowed northern voting delegates at youth conference in 09) , the senior Fianna Fáil party organised, held recruitment events and public fori in three Northern counties in the latter half of 2009. Progress was not rapid but steady rather than slow. It is happening and for many of us it is a most welcome development. I always believed in a thirty two county republican party and am delighted to be reassured many others in the movement think likewise. Lets push on for the assembly elections next year and take the opportunity to get a foothold both sides of the border. Towards 2016 indeed.
  • Yes to Lisbon. Perhaps not very sexy, but yet very important for the advancement of the greater European project.  A raft of organisational and procedural changes and some important common ground enablers to compete with the big blocs internationally and Continentally on climate change, security, defence etc.  A long slog, longer than anyone expected when it started in 2004 but welcome closure nonetheless…

-

Some lows:

-

  • Oireachtas Expenses Scandal The whole thing was an ignominious stain on the body politic. Whilst our former Ceann Comhairle friend, JOD seems to have been the worst, or at least the most prolific, the exorbitance seems to have been shared by many, including opposition parties when on their various junkets. And of course all expenses were signed off by cross party committee.  Which helps explain the reticence by any the Leinster house club members on any side the house to really tackle this until things came to a head via the media and public reaction.  Also whilst only the excesses were highlighted, the many legitimate expenses claimed are subsumed into the mix with the result that even legitimate expenses become  regarded as carpet bagging. The Minister has twice asked for a review of the system and it is needed for all purposes, to expose abuses but also to safeguard the legitimate uses of the system.
  • Banking Crisis The whole problem here is that wrong doing or at least a highly cavalier attitudes appear to have incurred no subsequent penalty, be it financial, legal or career wise. Sure some the big guns shuffled off the deck but not without some nice linings to their pockets as a result. The ‘moral hazard’ argument appeared to go out the window particularly with regard to the banks when it became clear some were ‘too big to fail’ but not in fact ‘too big to bail’. This is the ultimate quandary for a mixed economy, do the rules of extreme capitalism apply (where darwinism prevades and the bigger they come the harder they fall) or does the state pick up the tab to avoid massive job losses and potentially crippling wider economic and social affects. Obama had to do it with the automotive industry and we had to do it with the banks. While the government may have had no other choice,  it does leave a sour taste and we must still see heads roll in 2010 if this sector is to restore confidence.
  • Local Elections This was a real black spot. For me personally it was a very gruelling outcome, having campaigned officially for almost a year, and been involved in local activism for a lot longer it was and is frustrating to accept that, for the next few years at least, I can play no formal role in local affairs. The many things I wanted to do must all take a back seat as I have no formal platform with which to address them.  Whilst I accept the feedback from many people that it was a political not a personal issue, it doesn’t change the result. Also had it been locally political, I think the case stacked up very well, unfortunately we were condemned by the economic tsunami and the wider political malaise. A party colleague in another district, who has contested both general and local elections, recalled ruefully afterwards, how when he ran in the generals (when things were good nationally) he was cursed on local issues, and when he ran locally (when as a sitting Cllr he had a solid record on local issues) he was cursed on the basis of national politics! Looking at the wider political situation, one of the difficulties for the Fianna Fáil party is that so few of the ‘next generation’  young bloods were elected in this election, as where survivors did emerge it was generally the old dog for the long road, based usually on decades of graft and local relationship building. Full credit to them, but the imbalance will make it harder for the party to renew or regenerate internally, or to introduce any new blood/ideas, which ironically is what the electorate said was what was most needed. Well unfortunately it is on hold now for another five years at least.

I will likely add a few more items here over the next day or so but am publishing this now to get started.

A green day.. (Time of their lives?)

Moving swiftly on..

The Greens’ demands for their new deal are carried in the Irish Times today. Personally I hope both parties can broker a deal as I would like the current government to continue. The nightmare scenario as I see it (from an admittedly political perspective) is where the greens present impossible demands and the government falls because FF can’t grant them. Then FG / Lab proceed to do almost identical things to the last administration but with greater public support and when the inevitable recovery comes in 2012 or 13 claim all the credit. Meanwhile FF are forever the bad guys who caused the recesssion and wouldn’t even give the greens their wooly but worthy demands. In that case it really would be a case of good riddance even if they (GP) did have the time of their lives.

Quickly reviewing each point of the wishlist.

1.A reversal of recent education cuts
This is fine in theory but may just be mathematically impossible. It’s not FF policy to cut education, it’s a matter of financial survival of the state.

2. A reduction in the number of TDs
Perhaps but along with a reform of the function. Representatives (which institutionalises clientelism) or legislators?

3. Major changes in the electoral system
More power to local authorities? Agree. Shorter terms of government and councils. Agree. Greater powers? Good idea but within reason. The Californian state has nearly gone bust because when they granted people free choice they chose to be taxed liked libertarians whilst enjoying communist levels of public services..

4. A commitment to a single-tier universal health system
Agree with existing commercial insurers providing a private compliment to public provision but without the overlap. Bit like what Obama is trying to do in the States.

5. A new third rate of income tax
Probably makes sense. There are already three levels of levy. We should consider an advanced model like the Canadian system. It’s like a tax ladder with gradual incrememnts in tax when your earnings increase.

6. The abolition of the PRSI ceiling
Makes total sense.

7. The integration of the income levies with the tax rates
it’s a no brainer. It’s happening anyway. The Minister always said the levies were only a blunt instrument until the next budget could regularise things. But it allows greens claim a ‘win’ from the off.

8. A clampdown on tax exiles.
Agree. But isn’t this what we are doing already? We need clarity on what the Greens consider a tax exile.

9. An animal welfare Bill that would ban hare coursing, stag hunting, fur farming and the importation of wild animals to be used in circuses
Agreed on most the above. Definitely a lot to be done on animal welfare, controls, rehousing, kill rates, regulations and monitoring. It’s not all black and white though. Devil in the detail. I’m not a hunter but I like to cast a fly as well as the next man. And I’ve been known to grace the odd point to point. Lets balance the traditions of rural Ireland with the need for protections.

10. Basic social welfare entitlements should not be cut
Well it depends. Who are the ‘vulnerable’ these days? Employers get no ‘stamps’ allowance. What about the one who can’t pay his staff or the loan on his warehouse? Or the employee with a mortgage and bills on the table but no benefits. Better or worse off than those with gauraunteed tax free income (which has risen despite deflation). Or the millionaire with a medical card and / or child benefit. I know who’s going to be first in the queue for the doctors when the child gets sick and who will hesitate until its desperate.
We need safety nets sure but the current system needs fairness and reform on all sides.

11. Overseas development aid should not be cut
Worthy principle but needs must. We can only send what we can afford. Also, we send the Irish army abroad every year who protect hundreds of thousands of refugees. That’s worth millions in development aid.

12. A massive shift of emphasis from investment in road building to public transport initiatives
We need both. Ireland has seen vast improvements with the road building program of recent years. As a public transport activist I have many views on the railway and bus program also. If at all possible, capital investment on the T21 and other projects must be maintained.

The baby and the bathwater

I read two opposing accounts on the controversy in US healthcare this weekend and ironically enough I agreed with both. One was contained within the ‘Open Door’ magazine, a catholic pamphlet that is generally picked up on the way out of church (although this particular copy caught my eye in Tesco Maynooth), the other was in the UK Guardian, a left-leaning publication not normally given to religious regards.

Obama’s health service plans are in the news at present of course, as a debate ranges in the States over his plans to replace the current insurance only system with a national program for state cover. Some right wing critics in the States have seized upon supposed failures of the British public (or socialised as they say) health system to beat the reforming ideas of the new Healthcare push.

The ‘Open Door’ led with a front page missive upon the sanctity of human life and railed against the evils of disconnected secular beauracracies and the spectres of ‘death doctors’, putative panels with deity like powers on life and death. Forced euthanasia and mass abortions were cited as catastrophic consequences of socialised system.

I agreed with the author in the sense that I too would regard such consequences as apoclayptic if they were indeed to happen and I would very much concur with the author’s view on the sanctity of human life. However neither am I convinced that such things are contained within the healthcare package, rather a case of misrepresentation.

Which allowed me to find common cause with a quite different assessment of the plans contained within the Guardian newspaper this weekend, one which defended the plans and vilified the state-side critics. Private healthcare at the extreme as practised in many ways in the states literally is a life and death sitation for those caught in the middle. In this case of course ability to pay is the decider rather than either man or god which is a far less christian conundrum altogether.

Whilst many conservatives may take issue with Obama’s pro-choice views I believe such considerations to be misplaced at the heart of this debate. I believe him to be a fundamentally good man (in every sense including the classic biblical connotation of the word) and I believe the Democrats to be a good party. So Whilst I empathatise with the concerns of the religous orders, I fear the financial fire power of the US insurers is skewing the debate on many axes and for far baser motives, thus obscuring the real benefits the plan can bring at a very fundamental and christian level. As much as God must want to protect the unborn child, equally he must want to protect the poor sick and needy. So let’s get the balance right with an informed debate, but let’s make sure we throw out neither the baby nor the bathwater…