It does mean we are paying back more interest in the longer term but again I think that’s a price worth paying for more day to day flexibility. Also with presumed inflation the capital amount to be repaid should be less in real terms by redemption date.

Really the Greek difficulty was Ireland’s opportunity. Ireland, along with Portugal and possibly Spain, got lucky in terms of the wider European events conspiring to mean an overall solution had to be brokered. In the early days the thinking from Europe seemed to have been to “make an example” out of Ireland however as the solution was rolled out across further countries and as the Euro was coming under increased pressure, eventually something had to give. It seems Greece itself will be permitted a degree of default but that it will be strictly ring-fenced to that jurisdiction. Not convinced this will work, neither is Shane Ross.

A good break for Ireland though. Of course the interest rate cut only applies to one element of the bailout, the EFSF proportion, for all their malignment, the IMF rate was always more hospitable (c. 3%) and then there is EU / ECB funding, the latter through the backdoor into the Irish banks (which is partly what forced the bailout to be formalised in the first place) and other arrangements. I understand the bilateral agreements with UK and other countries (Sweden?) have yet to be drawn down, so the rate on those may not have been finalised yet. So the interest rate cut is only one part of a much wider pie, including many lenders and many different rates, but still a welcome development all the same. Not a panacea but sure we’ll take a Parthenon while it’s going spare.

On more general matters I’ve been watching events unfold on the national and European scene. Interesting if worrying that Portugal has now succumbed to an IMF bailout also. One has to wonder if parliament had held their nerve and passed their austerity budget would it have come to this. They chose to bring the house down and take their chances and will probably end up with similar if not harsher measures now anyway. Perhaps the politicians there thought if they could be seen to go down fighting they could escape an electoral bloodbath. They may just be punished now for shirking responsibility, I doubt they will escape political repercussion whatever happens.

It’s tempting to point to this and a follow-on predicted EU/IMF bailout for Spain and say Ireland wasn’t so bad, sure it’s happening across the EU. And that would be partly true. But just like the Portuguese, that doesn’t absolve the government here. Obviously the bank guarantee and other decisions will prove to have been critical along the way (although we still don’t know what the alternative would have been, even more so since the stark refusal of EU to sanction any kind of default within the community – including letting any bank fail – but I simply don’t know all the answers here, don’t think anyone does). But all that aside, what did for Fianna Fáil in the end was the attitude. Not the attitude of Fianna Fáil members up and down the country and I’ve spoken on that theme before, but I mean Fianna Fáil in government and the Ministers etc. It is simply unbelievable that in the middle of all this they saw (or at least appeared to see) nothing wrong with running for the hills with their satchels loaded. They may well have worked hard through their careers, and of course there were legal entitlements, but these were not normal times. There are senses of perspective sometimes needed and many let their party (and country) down badly. The perception projected out of government buildings right up to the end was one of business as usual with very little sense of adaptation or even awareness of a crisis. I am sure it was a hellish place to be towards the end, a bit of the Berlin bunker or Saigon rooftop about it, but it didn’t have to be that way. The Irish people are forgiving, they are understanding and with a bit of honest leadership and a real willingness to engage and a courage to lead it could have been Fianna Fáil’s finest hour. Brian Lenihan did manage to muster some of that spirit for a while but even he lost it at the end when it all just became too much talk. There are lessons to be learned from history as always. I think “Tell it straight, talk the talk but most of all walk the walk” about sums it up.

Funny enough I feel differently about the polling day itself. A friend asked me this morning would I be taking tomorrow off (to be around for the voting). I remember being asked the same on GE day. It had never really ocurred to me. I mean, what would you do? Hang around polling centres trying haggling people for an extra vote? Shuffle around outside and talk about turnout? I’ve done the latter at times and it’s not terribly exciting. I’ll confess to being a bundle of nerves outside the polling station as polls ended on 5th June but that time it was personal.

I actually find polling day itself a little depressing sometimes. One almost feels embarrassed for haraunging the people over the preceding weeks and maybe for caring so much. Judgment day has arrived. And I do feel people should be allowed make up their own minds at that stage. The media moratorium is a good thing and it’s a bit of a calm before the storm for those who will be at the count centre watching the boxes spill open at 8am the following day. Too late to influence anything at that stage of course but still a hive of frenetic activity.

This Saturday, I believe the Kildare Count is on at Punchestown whilst the Dublin one is at Citywest just up the road. Am tempted to flit between the two for the morning although if I end up tallying I’ll need to stay at my post for the duration. Bound to be bit of buzz about the Dublin count with all the big players and probably media outlets there but be very keen to see how my own areas voted as well. A political dilemma. Anyway whilst I was thinking about what do it I spotted Micheal Martin again as he popped up on the TV screen. As Minister for Foreign Affairs he has more or less ran the campaign from the government side. He’ll want to return home to Cork on Friday to vote of course and presumably he’ll want to stay the night with his wife and children whom he probably hasn’t seen much of lately. However he may very well wish or even need to be back at the count centre in Dublin first thing Saturday morning. Given the recent exposé of our Ceann Comhairles travel penchant, and of course more pressingly the state of our national finances, it got me thinking about what his travel arrangements would be. Whilst In between glancing at Vincent and Micheal on the TV I was reading a book about UK Labour and just at the part where (Gordon) Brown was flying back from Edinburgh on the day of election in order to join the London victory party so such things were on my mind.

I suppose the default option would be travel via Ministerial Merc from Cork to Dublin early Saturday morning, to arrive by 8am. Probably want be on the road by 5.30 at the latest but it’s doable. I’m not sure whether the government jet would be an option, probably a very costly one, but it would save time and allow the Minister arrive refreshed and ready for duty and in good time for a full day ahead. A potential compromise may be to grab a Ryanair (or other internal) flight – whilst this would address the time factor, the transfer from Dublin airport back to CityWest has to be included which would add at least an hour with checkout etc, and also its not a great environment for work or relaxation on route. The government jet or chauffer options could go to Weston aerodrome or CityWest direct respectively. I think the possibilities are interesting in the context of the debate on what are reasonable expenses. We want our Ministers to turn up for duty, on time, fresh and ready to do their jobs. At the same time we want them to do it in a manner that is as cost efficient and value for money as possible. It should be noted that I have no idea what the Minister’s plans are for the night in question, he could be sleeping outside CityWest in a tent for all I know, and I certainly don’t purport to speak for him or his arrangements. Maybe I think about these things too much

1. Ratification ensures that each country keeps its commissioner. Under the previous Nice Treaty, each country would lose a commissioner to a proposed rotational system to be introduced in 2014. The Lisbon Treaty reverses this decision and provides that any changes to the number of commissioners beyond 2014 must be passed by a unanimous vote by the leaders of each country.

2. The Council of Ministers will meet in public. Up until now, they always met in private.

3. The EU Council will now be allowed to elect a president for a 2 and half year term. This new president won’t have any decision making powers however it will mean that we can put a face to Europe, especially at a global level. Also the country version will run over an 18 month term shared across three countries at a time, replacing the current system where the transition occurs every six months and to a single member.

4. The European Parliament will have new powers to overrule the EU Council’s decisions. The parliament will also now have joint control over the EU budget division. This will ensure greater accountability for the EU’s finances.

5. The Lisbon Treaty sets down concrete rules for new aspiring members (i.e. Turkey, Croatia, Ukraine etc.). Up until now, there were only vague guidelines for countries to adhere to before joining the EU.

6. The ECB will have more powers over its own monetary policy. This further separates politics from monetary issues which will ensure the survivability of the euro currency. Ireland’s membership to the euro currency at the moment is crucial to our own survivability. For instance, the rapid deterioration of the Icelandic currency in 2008 impoverished a once rich nation. If Ireland wasn’t a part of the euro currency in 2009, we possibly could have faced the same fate as Iceland.

7. The Lisbon Treaty gives Ireland (and other countries) opt-out clauses on certain matters. In Ireland’s case, we can opt-out of taxation and military defence directives.

8. The Charter of Fundamental Rights will be enshrined in EU law. This will ensure that all future EU laws are drafted to the highest moral and social standards. This will place the EU as the world leader in this area.

9. National parliaments (i.e. the Irish Dáil and Seanad) will now have 8 weeks to review and scrutinise all proposed EU legislation. A simple majority of national parliaments can scupper a legislative proposal from the commission without any further procedure should they so wish.

10. The Lisbon Treaty allows for the setup of a European Defence Agency. This will allow the EU to intervene in international crisis so that past atrocities in recent times are not repeated (e.g. the genocides in Srebrenica and Rwanda). If Ireland does not wish participate in certain missions because it feels that it may impinge on our neutrality, we have the option to opt-out.

11. A European Culture and Heritage Clause in Lisbon recognizes the influence of Judaeo-Christian tradition on EU laws and procedures. With Western Europes growing Islamic migrant populations, this clause gives legal security against the push for Sharia Law in some mixed-culture states.

12. Enhanced co-operation. This feature allows groups of countries within the EU to proceed with policies that other countries do not wish to participate in (e.g. tax harmonisation).

13. A new citizens’ petition clause in the Lisbon Treaty enables citizens’ groups across Europe to collect 1 million signatures to allow it force a bill efore the EU Parliament.

The Lisbon Treaty offers us a more efficient, transparent and democratic EU.

Please vote YES on 2nd October!

My Newsletter from last June

2. Only a Yes Vote will bring about a Reformed EU to tackle the Economic Crisis. A Union frozen in the past is of no use to anyone, but a Union which is more dynamic and effective is essential for our future.

3. Only a Yes Vote is Good for Investment: 90% of those who invest in Ireland and support hundred of thousands of jobs say that confidence in our position as a Euro-positive country matters a lot for them. Only a Yes will help maintain confidence at this difficult time.

4. Only a Yes Vote Saves Our Commissioner: A No vote means we could lose our Commissioner by November, and along with it we will lose our voice at the EU’s top table. In 2008, 80% of people were concerned about this issue. It has now been addressed.

5. Only a Yes Vote helps tackle Climate Change, insecure Energy Supplies, as well as helps to fight Cross-Border Criminals, Human Traffickers, and Drug Dealers. We cannot fight these problems on our own.

6. Only a Yes Vote is good for Workers and Social Protection: The Treaty gives legal effect to the rights, freedoms and principles as set out in the Charter of Fundamental Rights.

7. Only a Yes Vote ensures a more Democratic and Accountable EU: Lisbon makes a new oversight role for the Oireachtas, and increases the powers of the European Parliament

8. Only a Yes Vote will send a Vital Signal to our EU Partners and to International Investors that we are a Fully Engaged EU Country. The EU is a key part of our path to economic recovery. A more efficient EU is to our benefit.

-         No, a lot has changed.  Following the deal agreed between Ireland and the other EU members, a Yes vote is the only way to guarantee that we keep our Commissioner – our voice at the top table of the EU. 

-         Regarding other issues raised by the Irish people over the course of the campaign, our partners in Europe listened, and each of these concerns has been addressed with guarantees. 

-         The guarantees give certainty about what is and is not in the Treaty.  They respond to the concerns raised and they remove any doubt. 

What do the new guarantees involve?

The new guarantees have emerged following a process of presenting the concerns expressed by the Irish people during last year’s referendum.

The European Council has agreed that each Member State will retain a Commissioner and that Ireland will be given legal guarantees in the areas of concern to Irish voters. 

At the June European Council, the 27 EU members signed an international agreement that guaranteed that the Lisbon Treaty does not affect: 

1. Ireland’s right to set our own tax rates. Our 12.5% corporate tax will remain solely our decision.
2. Ireland’s neutrality. There is no European army. There will be no conscription. Any decision to send Irish troops overseas must be passed by the Dáil and the mission must have a UN mandate.
3. Ireland’s right to decide for itself moral issues such as abortion, euthanasia, and issues that effect family life and education.

How can we believe these Guarantees?

These are watertight, cast iron guarantees that have been registered with the UN as a formal international agreement. They will be added to the next EU treaty as protocols. This is the same mechanism that was used to register the Good Friday agreement.

The EU has never reneged on a deal between the member states. It is a system built on trust.  

Some No campaigners say the guarantees are worthless?

 They toured the country last year spending huge amounts of money raising concerns about the Treaty.  Everyone remembers the posters about keeping a Commissioner, saving our tax powers, the right to life, and protecting neutrality. 

 These and other points have been dealt with. We must separate legitimate concerns from those that take issue with Europe as a concept in itself.

What about Workers’ Rights?

The European Council also agreed on a Solemn Declaration on Workers’ Rights which confirms the high importance that the Union attaches to:

-         social progress and the protection of workers’ rights;

-         public services;

-         the responsibility of Member States for the delivery of education and health services;

-         the essential role and wide discretion of national, regional and local authorities in providing, commissioning and organising services of general economic interest.

1. Lisbon will NOT pave the way to Abortion:  Ireland has secured a legal guarantee that it will retain control over sensitive social issues, including those related to the protection of the right to life, the family and education.
2. Lisbon will NOT pave the way to Tax Harmonisation: Ireland has secured a legal guarantee that it will remain in control of its own tax rates.
3. Lisbon will NOT lead to Ireland’s Militarisation nor Conscription: Ireland has secured a legal guarantee that its traditional policy of military neutrality will not be affected in any way.  There is no European Army.  We retain a triple lock system which requires the explicit approval of the Dáil, the Seanad and the UN for Irish troops to be deployed.
4. Lisbon will NOT erode Workers’ Rights: The Lisbon Treaty will strengthen workers’ rights by giving legal status to the Charter of Fundamental Rights.
5. We are NOT voting on the exact same package as last year: We retain a Commissioner and have legally binding guarantees on taxation, neutrality and abortion.
6. These Guarantees are NOT worthless:  They become legally binding the day the Treaty enters into force. They will be included in a Protocol to be attached to the EU Treaties at the time of the next accession treaty.
7. Lisbon will NOT create a new EU superstate: The EU is a union of 27 democratic states that has freely chosen to work together. The treaty enhances the democratic nature of the EU by giving a bigger say to national parliaments and the European Parliament.
8. Ireland will NOT have less power:  The new double majority system voting system is clearer, fairer and protects smaller countries.  In addition, a Yes vote is the only way to save our Commissioner.
9. Lisbon does NOT affect our minimum wage:  Ireland’s minimum wage is set by Ireland and has nothing whatsoever to do with the EU.  Posters claiming otherwise are part of the No side’s campaign to confuse the electorate
10. Submissions by Ireland during the Lisbon Treaty negotiations were NOT ignored: Claims to the contrary are based on false research from London-based Eurosceptic groups.

Next up is Lisbon and NAMA. I suport both though with slight qualifications in each case. I think NAMA is going to work and work reasonably well and I’ll say why in a longer post over the weekend. Although I’m not entirely sure what will happen to our developer friends and the associated business interests and downstream dependents (e.g. Employees, Creditors) as NAMA does not appear to do much for them. They still owe a bundle on many worthless sites. On Tuesday they owed AIB 10M for a site worth 3M, On Wednesday they owe NAMA 10M for a site worth 3M. The difference is the rest of the banks (in theory) can then restart lending to ‘normal’ or at least more probably profitable business iniatives. Caveat emptor as regards the builders and the 3M sites but NAMA is not a panacea for anyone.

Lisbon, well I thought it was a good deal last year and still do, although I still have reservations over a second referendum so soon after the people voiced their views on the first one. Right or wrong, it does weaken the democratic process somewhat if you keep going till you get the ‘right’ answer. Does anyone seriously think we would be having a second referendum if the answer was ‘Yes’ last time? Otherwise the treaty still stands on the merits (I felt) it had last year. Housekeeping by and large and the union should be more streamlined and efficient as a result Lisbon coming into force . Ironically I felt it was an eminently sensible decision to reduce the number of commissioners, to form a workable group size, having said that it is hard not to be pleased Ireland will not retain a permanent seat at the table.

Also whilst there is nothing specific in the treaty either way, there is no doubt the outcome will affect investor confidence and international views on Ireland which are fundamentally important as we try to navigate our way into safer waters. Critics may point at FDI figures since last year but a second ‘No’ would be a bridge too far for that to continue. Also I feel most the naysayers are actually fighting a different battle. Many of them are opposed to the European project full stop. I even have sympathy for some of their arguments (soverignity being one) but that ship has sailed, it left port in the seventies and rejection or otherwise of Lisbon will not alter those issues.

 On balance the European project has been a profoundly positive experience for Ireland. Areas such as workers rights, an expanded market for our goods, greatly lessened economic dependency on Britain, progressive environmental legislation, funding from ECB for our banks and from Europe in general for our infrastructure projects, enhancement of Ireland’s strategic attractivenes ref EMEA and many other reasons all mean I will be voting Yes on October 2nd. More on this anon.