Funny enough I feel differently about the polling day itself. A friend asked me this morning would I be taking tomorrow off (to be around for the voting). I remember being asked the same on GE day. It had never really ocurred to me. I mean, what would you do? Hang around polling centres trying haggling people for an extra vote? Shuffle around outside and talk about turnout? I’ve done the latter at times and it’s not terribly exciting. I’ll confess to being a bundle of nerves outside the polling station as polls ended on 5th June but that time it was personal.

I actually find polling day itself a little depressing sometimes. One almost feels embarrassed for haraunging the people over the preceding weeks and maybe for caring so much. Judgment day has arrived. And I do feel people should be allowed make up their own minds at that stage. The media moratorium is a good thing and it’s a bit of a calm before the storm for those who will be at the count centre watching the boxes spill open at 8am the following day. Too late to influence anything at that stage of course but still a hive of frenetic activity.

This Saturday, I believe the Kildare Count is on at Punchestown whilst the Dublin one is at Citywest just up the road. Am tempted to flit between the two for the morning although if I end up tallying I’ll need to stay at my post for the duration. Bound to be bit of buzz about the Dublin count with all the big players and probably media outlets there but be very keen to see how my own areas voted as well. A political dilemma. Anyway whilst I was thinking about what do it I spotted Micheal Martin again as he popped up on the TV screen. As Minister for Foreign Affairs he has more or less ran the campaign from the government side. He’ll want to return home to Cork on Friday to vote of course and presumably he’ll want to stay the night with his wife and children whom he probably hasn’t seen much of lately. However he may very well wish or even need to be back at the count centre in Dublin first thing Saturday morning. Given the recent exposé of our Ceann Comhairles travel penchant, and of course more pressingly the state of our national finances, it got me thinking about what his travel arrangements would be. Whilst In between glancing at Vincent and Micheal on the TV I was reading a book about UK Labour and just at the part where (Gordon) Brown was flying back from Edinburgh on the day of election in order to join the London victory party so such things were on my mind.

I suppose the default option would be travel via Ministerial Merc from Cork to Dublin early Saturday morning, to arrive by 8am. Probably want be on the road by 5.30 at the latest but it’s doable. I’m not sure whether the government jet would be an option, probably a very costly one, but it would save time and allow the Minister arrive refreshed and ready for duty and in good time for a full day ahead. A potential compromise may be to grab a Ryanair (or other internal) flight – whilst this would address the time factor, the transfer from Dublin airport back to CityWest has to be included which would add at least an hour with checkout etc, and also its not a great environment for work or relaxation on route. The government jet or chauffer options could go to Weston aerodrome or CityWest direct respectively. I think the possibilities are interesting in the context of the debate on what are reasonable expenses. We want our Ministers to turn up for duty, on time, fresh and ready to do their jobs. At the same time we want them to do it in a manner that is as cost efficient and value for money as possible. It should be noted that I have no idea what the Minister’s plans are for the night in question, he could be sleeping outside CityWest in a tent for all I know, and I certainly don’t purport to speak for him or his arrangements. Maybe I think about these things too much

1. Ratification ensures that each country keeps its commissioner. Under the previous Nice Treaty, each country would lose a commissioner to a proposed rotational system to be introduced in 2014. The Lisbon Treaty reverses this decision and provides that any changes to the number of commissioners beyond 2014 must be passed by a unanimous vote by the leaders of each country.

2. The Council of Ministers will meet in public. Up until now, they always met in private.

3. The EU Council will now be allowed to elect a president for a 2 and half year term. This new president won’t have any decision making powers however it will mean that we can put a face to Europe, especially at a global level. Also the country version will run over an 18 month term shared across three countries at a time, replacing the current system where the transition occurs every six months and to a single member.

4. The European Parliament will have new powers to overrule the EU Council’s decisions. The parliament will also now have joint control over the EU budget division. This will ensure greater accountability for the EU’s finances.

5. The Lisbon Treaty sets down concrete rules for new aspiring members (i.e. Turkey, Croatia, Ukraine etc.). Up until now, there were only vague guidelines for countries to adhere to before joining the EU.

6. The ECB will have more powers over its own monetary policy. This further separates politics from monetary issues which will ensure the survivability of the euro currency. Ireland’s membership to the euro currency at the moment is crucial to our own survivability. For instance, the rapid deterioration of the Icelandic currency in 2008 impoverished a once rich nation. If Ireland wasn’t a part of the euro currency in 2009, we possibly could have faced the same fate as Iceland.

7. The Lisbon Treaty gives Ireland (and other countries) opt-out clauses on certain matters. In Ireland’s case, we can opt-out of taxation and military defence directives.

8. The Charter of Fundamental Rights will be enshrined in EU law. This will ensure that all future EU laws are drafted to the highest moral and social standards. This will place the EU as the world leader in this area.

9. National parliaments (i.e. the Irish Dáil and Seanad) will now have 8 weeks to review and scrutinise all proposed EU legislation. A simple majority of national parliaments can scupper a legislative proposal from the commission without any further procedure should they so wish.

10. The Lisbon Treaty allows for the setup of a European Defence Agency. This will allow the EU to intervene in international crisis so that past atrocities in recent times are not repeated (e.g. the genocides in Srebrenica and Rwanda). If Ireland does not wish participate in certain missions because it feels that it may impinge on our neutrality, we have the option to opt-out.

11. A European Culture and Heritage Clause in Lisbon recognizes the influence of Judaeo-Christian tradition on EU laws and procedures. With Western Europes growing Islamic migrant populations, this clause gives legal security against the push for Sharia Law in some mixed-culture states.

12. Enhanced co-operation. This feature allows groups of countries within the EU to proceed with policies that other countries do not wish to participate in (e.g. tax harmonisation).

13. A new citizens’ petition clause in the Lisbon Treaty enables citizens’ groups across Europe to collect 1 million signatures to allow it force a bill efore the EU Parliament.

The Lisbon Treaty offers us a more efficient, transparent and democratic EU.

Please vote YES on 2nd October!

My Newsletter from last June

In what ways does Ireland Need Europe?

1. Ireland needs Europe for Investment and Jobs
- Foreign investment sustains hundreds of thousands of Irish jobs.
- Ireland’s attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment stems directly from our positive approach to EU membership.
- The people who invest in Ireland, and who we need for job creation, all say that we need to vote Yes to Lisbon

2. Ireland needs Europe for Exports
- Ireland is the most export dependant country in the EU. 2 out of 3 jobs in Ireland depend on exports.
- As a member of the EU, Ireland has direct access to 500 million consumers.
- Prior to joining the EEC community in 1973, Britain was the main destination for Irish exports. Now 63% of all our exports go to the EU.

3. Ireland needs the Euro
- Ireland has gained greatly from having a leading international currency, the euro.
- The European Central Bank has been indispensable during the credit crunch.

How will voting Yes help our economy?

The most significant thing about the current crisis is how most of the challenges can’t be dealt with by countries acting alone. Unfortunately, the last year has seen the EU’s limitations in how or how fast it can act. As a small open economy, Ireland needs an EU which is more efficient and effective, especially at times like this.

How will voting Yes help to protect and create Jobs?

1. A Yes vote will improve business confidence by removing uncertainty and improving stability. This is key to stimulating domestic enterprise. That is why all the country’s business organisations are supporting a Yes vote.

2. A Yes vote will send out the right message to international investors. One of the reasons why companies set up here was that Ireland was viewed as a player in the EU, which was the best gateway for their business into the European market.

3. A Yes vote will commit the EU to the policy of achieving full employment when framing its economic policies. All economic policies that come from Europe will have to first and foremost be designed to create jobs.

4. A Yes vote will require the EU to develop renewable and sustainable energy sources. As one of the best placed countries in the EU to produce “green” energy, Ireland stand to gain from the creation of thousands of new jobs.

We’ll still be in the EU if we vote No, so it won’t impact on our economy?
- An EU which isn’t capable of acting fact even in the face of the largest economic crisis in 70 years is a bad thing for us.

- A lot of investment came to Ireland rather than other countries because we were seen as a Euro-positive country at the centre of decisions and developments.

- A No vote is a major risk – and there is no conceivable economic upside to a No vote.

What will happen to Ireland if there is a No vote?

It simply isn’t credible to say that there will be no impact on Ireland if we stand alone against a Treaty even if the issues of concern raised in our referendum have been answered.

- Many countries will start looking for other ways to increase their cooperation with each other. It would be very difficult for us to stop this ‘two-speed Europe’.

2. Only a Yes Vote will bring about a Reformed EU to tackle the Economic Crisis. A Union frozen in the past is of no use to anyone, but a Union which is more dynamic and effective is essential for our future.

3. Only a Yes Vote is Good for Investment: 90% of those who invest in Ireland and support hundred of thousands of jobs say that confidence in our position as a Euro-positive country matters a lot for them. Only a Yes will help maintain confidence at this difficult time.

4. Only a Yes Vote Saves Our Commissioner: A No vote means we could lose our Commissioner by November, and along with it we will lose our voice at the EU’s top table. In 2008, 80% of people were concerned about this issue. It has now been addressed.

5. Only a Yes Vote helps tackle Climate Change, insecure Energy Supplies, as well as helps to fight Cross-Border Criminals, Human Traffickers, and Drug Dealers. We cannot fight these problems on our own.

6. Only a Yes Vote is good for Workers and Social Protection: The Treaty gives legal effect to the rights, freedoms and principles as set out in the Charter of Fundamental Rights.

7. Only a Yes Vote ensures a more Democratic and Accountable EU: Lisbon makes a new oversight role for the Oireachtas, and increases the powers of the European Parliament

8. Only a Yes Vote will send a Vital Signal to our EU Partners and to International Investors that we are a Fully Engaged EU Country. The EU is a key part of our path to economic recovery. A more efficient EU is to our benefit.

-         No, a lot has changed.  Following the deal agreed between Ireland and the other EU members, a Yes vote is the only way to guarantee that we keep our Commissioner – our voice at the top table of the EU. 

-         Regarding other issues raised by the Irish people over the course of the campaign, our partners in Europe listened, and each of these concerns has been addressed with guarantees. 

-         The guarantees give certainty about what is and is not in the Treaty.  They respond to the concerns raised and they remove any doubt. 

What do the new guarantees involve?

The new guarantees have emerged following a process of presenting the concerns expressed by the Irish people during last year’s referendum.

The European Council has agreed that each Member State will retain a Commissioner and that Ireland will be given legal guarantees in the areas of concern to Irish voters. 

At the June European Council, the 27 EU members signed an international agreement that guaranteed that the Lisbon Treaty does not affect: 

1. Ireland’s right to set our own tax rates. Our 12.5% corporate tax will remain solely our decision.
2. Ireland’s neutrality. There is no European army. There will be no conscription. Any decision to send Irish troops overseas must be passed by the Dáil and the mission must have a UN mandate.
3. Ireland’s right to decide for itself moral issues such as abortion, euthanasia, and issues that effect family life and education.

How can we believe these Guarantees?

These are watertight, cast iron guarantees that have been registered with the UN as a formal international agreement. They will be added to the next EU treaty as protocols. This is the same mechanism that was used to register the Good Friday agreement.

The EU has never reneged on a deal between the member states. It is a system built on trust.  

Some No campaigners say the guarantees are worthless?

 They toured the country last year spending huge amounts of money raising concerns about the Treaty.  Everyone remembers the posters about keeping a Commissioner, saving our tax powers, the right to life, and protecting neutrality. 

 These and other points have been dealt with. We must separate legitimate concerns from those that take issue with Europe as a concept in itself.

What about Workers’ Rights?

The European Council also agreed on a Solemn Declaration on Workers’ Rights which confirms the high importance that the Union attaches to:

-         social progress and the protection of workers’ rights;

-         public services;

-         the responsibility of Member States for the delivery of education and health services;

-         the essential role and wide discretion of national, regional and local authorities in providing, commissioning and organising services of general economic interest.

1. Lisbon will NOT pave the way to Abortion:  Ireland has secured a legal guarantee that it will retain control over sensitive social issues, including those related to the protection of the right to life, the family and education.
2. Lisbon will NOT pave the way to Tax Harmonisation: Ireland has secured a legal guarantee that it will remain in control of its own tax rates.
3. Lisbon will NOT lead to Ireland’s Militarisation nor Conscription: Ireland has secured a legal guarantee that its traditional policy of military neutrality will not be affected in any way.  There is no European Army.  We retain a triple lock system which requires the explicit approval of the Dáil, the Seanad and the UN for Irish troops to be deployed.
4. Lisbon will NOT erode Workers’ Rights: The Lisbon Treaty will strengthen workers’ rights by giving legal status to the Charter of Fundamental Rights.
5. We are NOT voting on the exact same package as last year: We retain a Commissioner and have legally binding guarantees on taxation, neutrality and abortion.
6. These Guarantees are NOT worthless:  They become legally binding the day the Treaty enters into force. They will be included in a Protocol to be attached to the EU Treaties at the time of the next accession treaty.
7. Lisbon will NOT create a new EU superstate: The EU is a union of 27 democratic states that has freely chosen to work together. The treaty enhances the democratic nature of the EU by giving a bigger say to national parliaments and the European Parliament.
8. Ireland will NOT have less power:  The new double majority system voting system is clearer, fairer and protects smaller countries.  In addition, a Yes vote is the only way to save our Commissioner.
9. Lisbon does NOT affect our minimum wage:  Ireland’s minimum wage is set by Ireland and has nothing whatsoever to do with the EU.  Posters claiming otherwise are part of the No side’s campaign to confuse the electorate
10. Submissions by Ireland during the Lisbon Treaty negotiations were NOT ignored: Claims to the contrary are based on false research from London-based Eurosceptic groups.

Next up is Lisbon and NAMA. I suport both though with slight qualifications in each case. I think NAMA is going to work and work reasonably well and I’ll say why in a longer post over the weekend. Although I’m not entirely sure what will happen to our developer friends and the associated business interests and downstream dependents (e.g. Employees, Creditors) as NAMA does not appear to do much for them. They still owe a bundle on many worthless sites. On Tuesday they owed AIB 10M for a site worth 3M, On Wednesday they owe NAMA 10M for a site worth 3M. The difference is the rest of the banks (in theory) can then restart lending to ‘normal’ or at least more probably profitable business iniatives. Caveat emptor as regards the builders and the 3M sites but NAMA is not a panacea for anyone.

Lisbon, well I thought it was a good deal last year and still do, although I still have reservations over a second referendum so soon after the people voiced their views on the first one. Right or wrong, it does weaken the democratic process somewhat if you keep going till you get the ‘right’ answer. Does anyone seriously think we would be having a second referendum if the answer was ‘Yes’ last time? Otherwise the treaty still stands on the merits (I felt) it had last year. Housekeeping by and large and the union should be more streamlined and efficient as a result Lisbon coming into force . Ironically I felt it was an eminently sensible decision to reduce the number of commissioners, to form a workable group size, having said that it is hard not to be pleased Ireland will not retain a permanent seat at the table.

Also whilst there is nothing specific in the treaty either way, there is no doubt the outcome will affect investor confidence and international views on Ireland which are fundamentally important as we try to navigate our way into safer waters. Critics may point at FDI figures since last year but a second ‘No’ would be a bridge too far for that to continue. Also I feel most the naysayers are actually fighting a different battle. Many of them are opposed to the European project full stop. I even have sympathy for some of their arguments (soverignity being one) but that ship has sailed, it left port in the seventies and rejection or otherwise of Lisbon will not alter those issues.

 On balance the European project has been a profoundly positive experience for Ireland. Areas such as workers rights, an expanded market for our goods, greatly lessened economic dependency on Britain, progressive environmental legislation, funding from ECB for our banks and from Europe in general for our infrastructure projects, enhancement of Ireland’s strategic attractivenes ref EMEA and many other reasons all mean I will be voting Yes on October 2nd. More on this anon.

(Disclaimer – this post was written on holidays and I’ve revived it now – could be a case of too much sun in every sense)
Finally another pan-European story that caught my eye this week (great thing about being on hols, having the international editions of papers like the Guardian and FT double bonus time to read them) concered some kind of cross-continental energy grid which would hook up everything from geo-thermal geyser power in Iceland to massive solar farms powered by the Saharan sun in North Africa. Apparently the proposal has been brought to the table quite recently by scientists and energy boffins and promises cheap, clean and renewable energy sources to supply all of Europes needs into the future. Brown and Sarkosy have given the thumbs up it seems and the next steps are an advanced pilot project. The grid idea is not particularly new but tapping into the Saharan solar potential would seem to be. I became a bit cynical reading the detail as it appears the European contributions to the project are really backup sources (such as the wind energy off UK and geo-thermal as mentioned) but that the Lions share comes from the dark continent. Just got me wondering was this some other new form of colonialism, our African friends “joining” the European community when they have something to give – a lot to give, in fact a lot more than the rest put together in this particular project, and I just hope they’re getting a decent quid pro quo out of it. Maybe I think too much..